Market Prediction 26th June 25

Market Prediction 26th June 2025

Description: Today, the Indian stock market witnessed mixed sentiments as Nifty closed at 25,244.75, fluctuating between 25,125.05 and 25,266.8. FIIs were net sellers in the cash market (-₹2,427.74 Cr), while DIIs bought ₹2,372.96 Cr. The derivative market data reveals key insights into future trends, with Pro traders and institutional players shaping market direction. Below is a detailed analysis of today’s option chain and F&O activity for tomorrow’s prediction.

Key Observations from Market Participant Data (F&O)

1. Client Category (Retail Traders)

• Net Short in Futures (Index & Stocks): Retail traders increased short positions in index futures (-7,514 long vs. 8,355 short) and stock futures (-59,133 long vs. -14,652 short).
• Heavy Put Buying in Index Options: Significant put accumulation (519,433 contracts) suggests hedging against downside risks.

2. Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs)

• Net Short in Stock Futures: DIIs hold -54,685 short contracts, indicating caution.
• Minimal Activity in Options: No major call/put writing, suggesting a wait-and-watch approach.

3. Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs)

• Mixed Futures Activity: Slightly bullish in index futures (310 long vs. -2,291 short) but bearish in stock futures (-13,949 long vs. -54,542 short).
• Call Writing in Index Options: FIIs sold 21,492 call contracts, indicating resistance expectations.

4. Professional Traders (Pro)

• Strong Long Bias in Index Futures (16,180 long vs. -1,162 short).
• Massive Put Accumulation (271,905 contracts) signals bullish sentiment.
• Aggressive Call Writing in Stock Options (-92,349 short calls) suggests profit booking in equities.

Conclusion: Pro traders are driving bullish momentum, while FIIs remain cautious. Retail traders are hedging with puts, indicating fear of a correction.

Nifty & Bank Nifty Option Chain Analysis

Nifty Option Chain (Nearest Expiry)

• Max Pain: 25,200 (Highest OI in PE strikes).
• PCR (Put-Call Ratio): 1.11 (Bullish bias).
• Key Levels:
  • Support: 25,100 (High PE OI at 25,200 & 25,000).
  • Resistance: 25,500 (CE OI buildup at 25,300 & 25,500).
• Notable Activity:
  • PE OI Surge at 25,200 (211,105 contracts) – Strong support.
  • CE Writing at 25,300 (135,616 contracts) – Resistance building.

Bank Nifty Option Chain (Nearest Expiry)

• Max Pain: 56,500 (Highest OI in PE strikes).
• PCR: 0.98 (Neutral to slightly bearish).
• Key Levels:
  • Support: 56,000 (High PE OI).
  • Resistance: 56,600 (CE OI concentration).
• Notable Activity:
  • PE OI Surge at 56,000 (71,523 contracts) – Strong support.
  • CE Writing at 56,600 (32,510 contracts) – Immediate resistance.

Conclusion: Nifty has a bullish bias, while Bank Nifty is range-bound with a slight bearish tilt.

Notable Option Activity

Nifty

• Bullish Signal: Heavy put writing at 25,200.
• Bearish Signal: Call writing at 25,300 & 25,500.

Bank Nifty

• Bullish Signal: PE accumulation at 56,000.
• Bearish Signal: CE writing at 56,600 & 57,000.

Inference: Market may consolidate with an upward bias in Nifty, while Bank Nifty could face resistance.

Tomorrow’s Market Prediction

Nifty Outlook

• Bullish Above 25,300 (Target: 25,500).
• Bearish Below 25,100 (Support: 25,000).

Bank Nifty Outlook

• Bullish Above 56,600 (Target: 57,000).
• Bearish Below 56,000 (Support: 55,800).

Overall Sentiment: Cautiously Bullish (Pro traders’ long positions outweigh FII selling).

Institutional Activity & Sentiment

• FIIs (Cash Market): Net sellers (-₹2,427 Cr) – Short-term bearish pressure.
• DIIs (Cash Market): Net buyers (+₹2,372 Cr) – Supporting downside.
• Pro Traders (F&O): Heavy long positions – Expecting upside.

Conclusion: Institutional divergence suggests consolidation before a breakout.

Trade Recommendations

Nifty Strategies

• Bullish: Buy 25,200 PE for downside hedge.
• Bearish: Sell 25,500 CE if resistance holds.

Bank Nifty Strategies

• Range-bound: Straddle near 56,500.
• Breakout: Go long above 56,600.

Final Verdict

Market Prediction for 26th June 2025:

• Nifty: 25,100 - 25,500 (Bullish bias).
• Bank Nifty: 56,000 - 56,800 (Neutral to bullish).

Key Drivers:

• Pro traders’ long buildup.
• FII selling may cap upside.
• Global cues (Ceasefire tensions, crude oil drop).

Final Call: Buy on dips in Nifty, trade range-bound in Bank Nifty.

Note: For live updates, check NSE India and Bloomberg Markets.

Disclaimer: This is not financial advice; trade at your own risk.

https://www.optionchainindia.com/blog/market-view-2/market-prediction-25th-june-2025-46