Nifty Monday Prediction (June 16) : Key Levels & Data Decode
Option Matrix India | June 14, 2025
After a volatile Friday driven by global news, where the Nifty fell to 24,500 before a smart recovery, traders are asking: What's next for Monday? This article provides a simple, data-driven prediction using key numbers and levels, optimized for traders on the go.
Friday's Market Action at a Glance:
- Nifty Close: 24,718.60 (Recovered from day's low)
- Big Investors (FIIs): Sold ₹1,263 crores in cash market.
- Domestic Funds (DIIs): Bought ₹3,041 crores in cash market.
Global Mood: Caution is Key
The biggest factor for Monday's opening is the tense geopolitical situation in the Middle East. This fear sent markets down on Friday. While Nifty recovered, the risk remains.
- Crude Oil: Prices have spiked, which is a negative for the Indian economy.
- Global Markets: US and European markets closed weak.
- Gift Nifty: Watch the Gift Nifty before the market opens for early clues. A negative signal is likely.
Expect a flat to gap-down opening on Monday. The market's ability to hold its opening levels will be the first test for the bulls.
Data Decode: Who is Betting Where?
Let's look at the crucial derivatives data from Friday's close to see the positions of key players. This is a vital clue for Monday's market direction.
- FIIs (Foreign Investors): Clearly Bearish. They hold significant net short positions in Index Futures (-1.04 lakh contracts) and have more long Puts than Calls. They are betting on a downside.
- Pros (Smart Money): Slightly Bullish. These experienced traders have created bullish positions in options, likely by selling puts. They seem confident that the market won't fall much.
- Clients (Retail Traders): Very Bullish. Retail is heavily net long in Index Futures. They are positioned for an upside, which makes them vulnerable if the market opens down.
The takeaway: A classic fight is set up for Monday. FIIs will try to push the market down, while Pros and DIIs (with their cash buying) will try to defend lower levels.
Option Chain: Nifty's Monday Boundaries
The option chain for the next expiry clearly marks the battlefield for Monday.
- Lakshman Rekha (Support): 24,500. This level has the highest Put Open Interest. It acted as strong support on Friday and is the level to defend for bulls. A break below this can trigger a bigger fall. An immediate minor support exists at 24,600.
- The Big Wall (Resistance): 24,800. This is the immediate and strong hurdle, with massive Call writing. Nifty will struggle to cross this. If it does, the next resistance is the psychological level of 25,000.
Monday's Trading Range: For Monday, the Nifty is likely to trade within a broad range of 24,500 to 24,800.
Prediction for Monday, June 16, 2025
Here are the most likely scenarios for Monday's trading session:
Scenario 1: Range-Bound with a Bearish Tilt (High Probability)
The market may open with a small gap down due to global cues. It will likely find support near the 24,600-24,550 zone. For the rest of the day, expect a struggle between FII sellers and DII/Pro buyers, keeping the Nifty in the 24,550-24,800 range. Selling on any rise towards 24,800 could be a common strategy.
Scenario 2: Sharp Sell-off Below Support (Medium Probability)
If negative global news continues over the weekend, and Nifty breaks below the critical 24,500 support with conviction, the selling pressure could intensify. This would trap the bullish retail traders, potentially leading to a sharp fall towards 24,400.
Scenario 3: Positive Reversal (Low Probability)
A bullish outcome seems unlikely unless there is a significant positive development in the geopolitical situation. If the market opens flat and manages to conquer the 24,800 wall, a short-covering rally could push the Nifty towards 24,900.
Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Trading in the stock market carries significant risk. Please consult with your financial advisor before making any decisions.