Derivative Market Prediction 24th July 2025

Market Prediction for 24th July, 2025: Today

Nifty and Bank Nifty Outlook Based on Derivative Market Data

The Indian stock market is a dynamic ecosystem influenced by a myriad of factors, including domestic and foreign institutional activities, derivative market signals, and global economic developments. As we approach July 24, 2025, investors and traders are keen to understand the potential direction of the market, particularly for the Nifty 50 and Bank Nifty indices. This article provides a comprehensive market prediction for July 24, 2025, leveraging detailed analysis of market participant data, option chain data, cash market activity, and global cues. Our focus is on delivering actionable insights for traders and investors, with an emphasis on the keyword market prediction to ensure relevance and accessibility.

Yesterday’s Market Movement: A Bullish Close

On July 23, 2025, the Indian stock market exhibited a bullish trend, reflecting positive investor sentiment. The Nifty 50 index closed at 25,219.9 points, marking a gain of 159 points from the previous close of 25,060.9. The index opened at 25,139.35 and traded within a range of 25,085.5 to 25,233.5, indicating moderate volatility. Similarly, the Bank Nifty index closed at 57,210.45 points, up 454.45 points from 56,756, with a trading range of 56,715.8 to 57,249.00.

This upward movement suggests that the Indian stock market maintained resilience despite mixed signals from institutional investors. The bullish close sets the stage for our market prediction for the next trading session, as we analyze the underlying factors driving this performance.

Cash Market Activity: DIIs Counter FII Selling

The cash market activity on July 23 provides critical insights into the forces shaping market dynamics. Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) were net buyers, purchasing shares worth ₹2,944.9 crore. In contrast, Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net sellers, offloading shares worth ₹2,422.4 crore. The net buying by DIIs, which exceeded FII selling, played a pivotal role in supporting the market’s upward trajectory.

Historically, the Indian stock market tends to exhibit bullish behavior when FIIs are net buyers in the cash market and bearish tendencies when they sell. However, the significant DII buying on July 23 suggests that domestic investors are confident in the market’s near-term prospects, potentially offsetting the bearish pressure from FII selling. This dynamic is a key component of our market prediction for July 24, as it indicates underlying support from domestic capital.

Derivative Market Analysis: Futures and Options Insights

The derivative market analysis offers a deeper understanding of market sentiment and potential price levels. By examining futures and options data, we can identify key support and resistance levels that inform our stock market predictions.

Futures Segment

In the futures segment, market participant data reveals divergent strategies among different investor groups:

• FIIs: Hold a net long position of 3,897 contracts in index futures, indicating a bullish outlook.
• DIIs: Have a net short position of 2,484 contracts, suggesting a bearish stance.
• Proprietary Traders (Pro): Are net short with 4,989 contracts, aligning with DIIs in their bearish positioning.

The net long position by FIIs is a positive signal, as their actions often influence market direction. However, the bearish positions of DIIs and proprietary traders introduce a degree of caution. This mixed sentiment in the futures market is a critical factor in our market prediction, as it suggests that while FIIs are optimistic, other participants are hedging or anticipating a pullback.

Option Chain Data

The option chain data provides granular insights into market expectations, particularly through open interest (OI) and changes in open interest (CHNG IN OI). These metrics help identify potential support and resistance levels.

Nifty Option Chain

The Nifty Present Expiry Data highlights the following:

• Strike Price 25,200:
  • Call Open Interest: 127,962 contracts
  • Put Open Interest: 156,771 contracts
  • Change in OI: Calls decreased by 40,618 contracts, while puts increased by 122,835 contracts.

The higher put open interest at 25,200, coupled with a significant increase in put OI, suggests that this level is a strong support zone. Market participants are likely buying puts to protect against downside risk, reinforcing the support at 25,200. The decrease in call OI indicates unwinding of call positions, which could be due to profit-taking or a shift in sentiment.

• Strike Price 25,500:
  • Call Open Interest: 140,560 contracts (highest for calls)

The high call open interest at 25,500 indicates potential resistance, as traders may be selling calls at this level, expecting the market to face selling pressure if it approaches this strike.

The put-call ratio (PCR) for Nifty is approximately 1.60 (total put OI of 1,845,781 divided by total call OI of 1,150,396). A PCR above 1 typically signals bearish sentiment, as more puts are held than calls. However, in the context of options trading, a high PCR can also indicate an oversold market, potentially setting the stage for a reversal. This nuanced interpretation is central to our market prediction.

Bank Nifty Option Chain

The Bank Nifty Present Expiry Data reveals:

• Strike Price 57,000:
  • Call Open Interest: 42,084 contracts
  • Put Open Interest: 43,679 contracts
  • Change in OI: Calls decreased by 14,617 contracts, puts increased by 12,300 contracts.

With Bank Nifty closing at 57,210.45, above the 57,000 strike, the high put open interest and increase in put OI suggest strong support at this level. The decrease in call OI indicates unwinding, similar to the Nifty, which may reflect profit-taking or a cautious outlook among call writers.

• Strike Price 60,000:
  • Call Open Interest: 35,771 contracts (second highest for calls)

The significant call open interest at 60,000 suggests potential resistance, though it is further from the current price, indicating that immediate resistance may be closer to 57,500.

The option chain data underscores the importance of 25,200 for Nifty and 57,000 for Bank Nifty as support levels, with potential resistance at 25,500 and 57,500, respectively. These levels are critical for our stock market predictions.

Global Cues: A Mixed but Positive Outlook

Global market performances significantly influence the Indian stock market, particularly during the opening session. Here’s a snapshot of key global indices:

• US Market: The S&P 500 closed higher on July 23, 2025, gaining 0.19% to reach 6,371 points, according to Trading Economics. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) closed at 633.22, up from 628.86 the previous day, reinforcing the positive sentiment (Finviz).
• Japanese Market: The Nikkei 225 surged 3.48% to close at 41,158 points, driven by optimism over a US-Japan trade deal (Trading Economics).
• Hong Kong Market: The Hang Seng Index opened slightly lower on July 24, down 0.04% at 25,528 points, indicating a cautious start (Dimsum Daily).

The positive performance of the US and Japanese markets suggests a favorable global environment, which could support a positive opening for the Indian stock market. However, the slight decline in the Hang Seng Index introduces a note of caution.

India-US Trade Deal: Uncertainty Looms

The ongoing negotiations for an India-US trade deal are a significant factor influencing market sentiment. Recent reports indicate that the prospects for an interim deal before the August 1, 2025, deadline have dimmed, with disagreements over tariff cuts on agricultural and dairy products (Reuters). Key points include:

• Negotiation Status: Talks have been ongoing, with an Indian delegation in Washington from July 14-17, but no breakthrough has been achieved.
• Key Issues: The US is pushing for market access for genetically modified crops and dairy, while India seeks relief on textiles, shrimp, gems, and leather.
• Impact on Market: The lack of progress may introduce volatility, as investors remain cautious about potential tariff impositions.

A positive resolution could boost sectors like auto and textiles, while a stalemate may lead to profit-taking or risk-off sentiment. This uncertainty is a critical consideration in our market prediction.

Sectoral Outlook

Sector-specific trends provide additional context for our stock market predictions:

• Auto Sector: The Nifty Auto sector is expected to perform well, driven by positive developments in global trade deals, particularly the US-Japan agreement, which may benefit Indian auto manufacturers through reduced competition or increased export opportunities (StockGro).
• IT Sector: The IT sector may face pressure, as indicated by recent trends and global tech stock performances. The gradual decline in IT stocks suggests investor caution (Livemint).
• Banking Sector: Banking stocks, particularly private banks, showed strength on July 23, which may continue to support Bank Nifty’s performance.

Market Prediction for July 24, 2025

Based on the comprehensive analysis of cash market activity, derivative data, and global cues, we present the following market prediction for July 24, 2025:

Nifty 50

• Opening: Likely to open around 25,250 points, supported by positive global cues and domestic buying.
• Trading Range: Expected to trade between 25,200 and 25,400.
• Support Level: 25,200, backed by high put open interest (156,771 contracts) and significant put OI addition (122,835 contracts).
• Resistance Level: 25,500, where high call open interest (140,560 contracts) may cap upside moves.

Bank Nifty

• Opening: Expected to open around 57,250 points.
• Trading Range: Likely to trade between 57,000 and 57,500.
• Support Level: 57,000, supported by high put open interest (43,679 contracts) and put OI addition (12,300 contracts).
• Resistance Level: 57,500, with potential resistance at higher strikes like 60,000 (35,771 call OI).

Key Considerations

• Global Cues: The positive US and Japanese market performances suggest a favorable opening, though the Hang Seng’s slight decline may temper enthusiasm.
• Trade Deal Uncertainty: Investors should monitor updates on the India-US trade deal, as a positive announcement could boost sentiment, particularly in export-oriented sectors.
• Volatility: The India VIX, a measure of market volatility, was reported at 10.53 on July 23, indicating relatively low volatility, which supports a stable trading session (StockGro).

Detailed Option Chain Analysis

To provide a deeper understanding, let’s examine the option chain data in more detail:

Nifty Option Chain Data

Strike Price	Call OI	Call CHNG IN OI	Put OI	Put CHNG IN OI
25,200	127,962	-40,618	156,771	122,835
25,500	140,560	Not Available	7,103	Not Available
25,300	89,932	Not Available	28,312	Not Available
25,400	94,743	Not Available	7,918	Not Available

The significant increase in put OI at 25,200 suggests that traders are positioning for support at this level, likely through put buying or writing. The decrease in call OI indicates unwinding, which could be due to profit-taking or a shift to higher strikes. The high call OI at 25,500 positions it as a key resistance level.

Bank Nifty Option Chain Data

Strike Price	Call OI	Call CHNG IN OI	Put OI	Put CHNG IN OI
57,000	42,084	-14,617	43,679	12,300
60,000	35,771	-1,028	0	0
58,000	32,998	-1,078	5,737	Not Available
59,000	34,501	-1,028	925	Not Available

The high put OI and increase at 57,000 reinforce its role as a support level, while the decrease in call OI suggests reduced bullish bets at this strike. The call OI at 60,000 indicates a potential resistance, though it is further from the current price.

Technical Analysis and Market Sentiment

Technical indicators provide additional context for our market prediction. The Nifty 50 is trading near its key support level of 25,200, which aligns with the high put OI. A sustained move above 25,250 could target 25,400, while a break below 25,200 may lead to downside pressure towards 24,900, as suggested by some technical outlooks (Enrich Money).

For Bank Nifty, the support at 57,000 is critical, and a move above 57,500 could signal further upside. The bullish close on July 23, driven by banking stocks, supports this outlook.

The put-call ratio of 1.60 for Nifty suggests bearish sentiment, but in the context of high put OI and a bullish close, it may indicate that the market is oversold, potentially leading to a bounce. This aligns with the positive global cues and domestic buying strength.

Global and Domestic Factors

Global Factors

• US-Japan Trade Deal: The announcement of a 15% tariff on Japanese imports has boosted the Nikkei 225, which could have a positive spillover effect on Indian auto stocks (Schwab).
• US Economic Data: Strong US jobs data and corporate earnings have supported the S&P 500’s rise, reducing expectations for immediate Federal Reserve rate cuts, which may influence FII flows (CNN Business).
• Geopolitical Tensions: Ongoing concerns about Middle East tensions and oil prices may introduce volatility, particularly for oil-importing countries like India (The Hindu BusinessLine).

Domestic Factors

• Q1 Earnings: Upcoming earnings from companies like Infosys, Dr. Reddy’s Labs, and Tata Consumer Products will drive stock-specific movements (Livemint).
• Rupee and Oil Prices: The rupee closed at 85.68 against the US dollar on July 2, amid rising crude oil prices, which could impact market sentiment (The Hindu BusinessLine).

Conclusion

Our market prediction for July 24, 2025, suggests a cautiously optimistic outlook for the Indian stock market. The Nifty 50 is expected to open around 25,250 points and trade within 25,200 to 25,400, with strong support at 25,200 and resistance at 25,500. Bank Nifty is likely to open around 57,250 points, trading between 57,000 and 57,500, with support at 57,000. The auto sector may outperform, while the IT sector could face challenges. Investors should remain vigilant for updates on the India-US trade deal and monitor key support and resistance levels to navigate potential volatility.

Disclaimer: This article is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always conduct your own research or consult with a financial advisor before making investment decisions.