Market Prediction for 16 July 2025:
Bullish Outlook Based on Derivative Market Data
On Today July 15, 2025, the Indian stock market demonstrated strong gains, with the Nifty index up 113.5 points at 25195.8 and the Bank Nifty index rising 241.3 points to 57006.65. This positive trend was driven by significant cash market purchases, as Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) bought stocks worth ₹1477.58 Cr and Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) invested ₹104.49 Cr. The derivative market data, including option chains, further supports this bullish sentiment, offering insights for July 16, 2025.
Today’s Market Movement
On July 15, 2025, the Nifty index opened at 25089.5, traded within a range of 25088.45 to 25245.2, and closed near its daily high at 25195.8, up from the previous close of 25082.3. This formed a strong bullish candle, indicating sustained buying interest throughout the session. Similarly, Bank Nifty opened at 56709.2, ranged between 56707.8 and 57134.95, and closed at 57006.65, up from 56765.35, also forming a bullish candle. The close near the daily highs for both indices suggests strong market confidence.
FII Cash Activity
FIIs were net buyers in the cash market, acquiring stocks worth ₹104.49 Cr. This buying activity aligns with historical trends where FII buying in the cash market often signals a bullish market outlook. Combined with their derivative positions, which show a higher proportion of long contracts, FIIs appear optimistic about the market’s near-term direction.
Derivative Market Analysis
The derivative market data, extracted from the provided Excel workbook, offers critical insights into market sentiment through option chains and market participant positions.
Nifty Option Chain Analysis
The Nifty option chain for the nearest expiry highlights significant open interest (OI) at the 25200 strike, making it a pivotal level for July 16, 2025. Key details include:
- Call OI at 25200: 136347 (increase of 18157 contracts)
- Put OI at 25200: 126981 (increase of 84503 contracts)
- Put Call Ratio (PCR): 0.93 (calculated as 126981 / 136347), indicating a slightly bullish sentiment as a PCR below 1 suggests more call writing or put buying.
- Call Last Traded Price (LTP): ₹94.55
- Put LTP: ₹50.40
The higher call LTP compared to the put LTP at the ATM strike further supports bullish sentiment. The cumulative PCR for Nifty across all expiries is 0.8764, reinforcing this outlook.
Implied Volatility (IV):
- Call IV: 27.94%
- Put IV: 45.88%
The higher put IV suggests market participants anticipate potential downside risk, but the strong bullish close above 25195.8 indicates this fear may be overstated.
Key Strikes:
- Highest Call OI: 25200 (136347 contracts)
- Highest Put OI: 25000 (141791 contracts)
Key Levels:
- Resistance: 25200 (high call OI), 25300, 25400
- Support: 25000 (high put OI), 24900
Bank Nifty Option Chain Analysis
For Bank Nifty, the ATM strike of 57000 is critical, with the following details:
- Call OI: 35641 (decrease of 1041 contracts)
- Put OI: 33906 (increase of 1649 contracts)
- PCR: 0.951 (33906 / 35641), indicating a bullish bias.
- Call LTP: ₹691.35
- Put LTP: ₹450.35
The cumulative PCR for Bank Nifty is 0.8946, consistent with Nifty’s bullish signal. The higher call LTP compared to the put LTP supports this positive outlook.
Implied Volatility:
- Call IV: 9.24%
- Put IV: 17.43%
Similar to Nifty, the higher put IV suggests caution, but the strong close above 57000 indicates bullish momentum.
Key Strikes:
- Highest Call OI: 56000 (39336 contracts), 57000 (35641 contracts)
- Highest Put OI: 56000 (63942 contracts), 57000 (33906 contracts)
Key Levels:
- Resistance: 57500, 58000
- Support: 57000 (potential support as it closed above), 56500, 56000
Market Participant Data
The market participant data provides insights into the positions held by different investor categories:
- Retail Investors (Client):
- Total Long Contracts: 391674
- Total Short Contracts: 354795
- % Wise Long: 0.5074
- % Wise Short: 0.3922
- Observation: Retail investors hold a balanced but slightly long-biased position, indicating cautious optimism.
- DIIs:
- Total Long Contracts: 5195
- Total Short Contracts: 27666
- % Wise Long: 0.0128
- % Wise Short: 0.2314
- Observation: DIIs have more short positions in derivatives, but their significant cash market buying (₹1477.58 Cr) suggests they may be covering shorts or taking profits.
- FIIs:
- Total Long Contracts: 22251
- Total Short Contracts: -2358 (likely a typo for 2358)
- % Wise Long: 0.2383
- % Wise Short: 0.1682
- Observation: FIIs show a higher proportion of long positions, and their cash market buying (₹104.49 Cr) reinforces their bullish stance.
- Professional Traders (Pro):
- Total Long Contracts: 41884
- Total Short Contracts: 41884
- % Wise Long: 0.2415
- % Wise Short: 0.2082
- Observation: Professional traders maintain a balanced position, indicating neutrality.
Daily Price Action
The daily price action for Nifty on July 15, 2025, showed a strong bullish candle. The index opened at 25089.5, consolidated after a gap-up opening, and surged to close near its daily high of 25245.2 at 25195.8. This breakout above the previous day’s high is a positive technical signal.
Bank Nifty followed a similar pattern, opening at 56709.2, trading within a range of 56707.8 to 57134.95, and closing near its high at 57006.65. The bullish candle and close above 57000 reinforce the positive market sentiment.
Market Prediction for July 16, 2025
Based on the comprehensive analysis of derivative market data, cash market activity, and daily price action, the Indian stock market is likely to open positively on July 16, 2025. The bullish momentum from July 15, supported by strong institutional buying and favorable derivative indicators, suggests continued upside potential.
Nifty Outlook
- Key Level: 25200 (significant call and put OI)
- Bullish Scenario: Sustaining above 25200 could drive Nifty towards 25500, with resistance at 25300 and 25400.
- Bearish Scenario: A drop below 25200 may find support at 25000 (high put OI), followed by 24900.
- Probability: The strong close above 25195.8 and bullish derivative signals make an upward move more likely.
Bank Nifty Outlook
- Key Level: 57000 (high OI, closed above)
- Bullish Scenario: Holding above 57000 could push Bank Nifty towards 57500 and 58000.
- Bearish Scenario: A decline below 57000 may find support at 56500 and 56000.
- Probability: The close above 57000 and positive cash market activity favor an upward trend.
Potential Risks
- Global Cues: Unexpected adverse developments in global markets could introduce volatility.
- High Put IV: Indicates some market caution, though the bullish close may mitigate this concern.
Conclusion
The derivative market data, combined with strong cash market buying by FIIs and DIIs, points to a bullish outlook for the Indian stock market on July 16, 2025. Investors should monitor key levels—25200 for Nifty and 57000 for Bank Nifty—as these will dictate the market’s direction. The absence of major events on July 16 and the positive momentum from the previous day support a continued upward trend, provided global markets remain stable.
Disclaimer
This analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be considered as buy or sell recommendations. Investors are advised to conduct their own research and consult with financial advisors before making any investment decisions.